基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析综述(Ⅱ)——随机抽样模拟与极值风速预测

台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海陆风速转换模型以及台风极值风速概率模型,并针对我国东南沿海地区台风危险性分析数值模拟采用的相关模型给出了相关建议。     

基于风险分析的公共场所人员安全容量确定方法

为满足目前公共场所安全容量定额管理需求,提出了基于风险分析的公共场所人员安全容量确定方法,具体分析了该方法的实现流程。首先从影响公共场所人员容量的风险源出发,分析活动类型、场所类型、参加人员和灾害事故这4个方面的人群风险源影响,而后从运动阈值、心理阈值、心理阈值和服务资源阈值4个承受力角度重点阐述了运动安全容量、生理安全容量、生理安全容量和服务安全容量。通过风险分析方法得到的安全容量,考虑了公共场所的风险特点,并且这个安全容量将随着风险因素的变化而不同。这个方法可用于指导公共场所人员安全容量定额管理。     

声发射检测灵敏度校准声源实验分析

在声发射技术的应用中,传感器的工作频率和灵敏度对AE检测的结果具有决定性的作用,传感器的校准是AE定量研究的基础,也是声发射检测技术研究中的重要课题。根据二级校准的相关要求设计了三个不同声源的实验:落球、断铅和压断毛细玻璃管法。通过重复性实验,测量了不同大小的钢球从不同高度下落;不同粗细、硬度以及不同长度的铅芯的断裂;不同粗细的毛细玻璃管被压断产生的脉冲声源,分别比较以上三个实验在不同状态条件下产生的脉冲声源信号,分析其实时特征和频谱特征(峰值,上升时间),通过计算确定其不确定度和稳定度,总结优化操作方法,同时分析了实验误差。在此基础上得出最适合做声发射传感器灵敏度校准的脉冲声源,为声发射传感器校准中的参考声源提供性能评判的依据。     

长江干线船舶碰撞原因的故障树分析一以武汉海事局辖区水域为例

以2007年武汉海事局辖区船舶碰撞资料为基础，利用故障树分析方法构建该水域船舶碰撞故障树，进行定性、定链分析，得到包括航行疏于戒备、车舵控制失误、疏于了望等14个主要危险因素及各因素的相关事故数。在故障树分析的基础上，构建布尔代数和最小割集，计算各危险旧素的概率重要度，以衡精各危险因素发生概率的变化给碰撞事故发生概率带来的影响；计算临界重要度，从敏感度和概率双重角度衡量每个危险因素的重要度。通过分析发现应急操作不当、违反其他规定、航行疏于戒备、违反分道通航、疲劳驾驶等人为因素是引起该水域船舶碰撞的重要原因。建议船公司重视船员应急培训，提高船员应急处置能力，海事管理机构加大相关法规宣传力度和监管力度。     

定位注浆顶板的稳定性数值模拟

帷幕注浆技术能实现岩溶水矿山的安全开采,而注浆(即隔障带)厚度一般是利用经验公式计算所得,存在较大的误差。本文应用流固耦合理论,对矿体开采条件下顶板注浆隔障带的稳定性问题进行了分析。采用数值模拟的方法,定量地模拟了矿房开挖过程中围岩(即隔障带)应力场的分布、破坏场的发展及位移场的变化规律。模拟表明由于顶板发生破坏,经验公式计算的隔障带不能满足隔水的要求,应增大隔障带厚度保证安全开采。根据采动影响范围为大水矿床顶板注浆及矿房参数设计提供依据,对防治岩熔水矿山突水有一定的指导意义。     

喻家湖水质时空分布特征和影响因子分析

通过设计合理的水质监测网,采用多元统计分析,并结合地理信息技术对武汉市喻家湖在2011年-2012年期间12个监测点、13个水质参数监测值进行水质时空分布特征研究.结果表明,喻家湖13个水质指标概括为4个主成分:第一主成分代表喻家湖的重金属污染,第二主成分代表其富营养化水平,第三主成分代表有机污染程度,第四主成分间接指示富营养化程度;在时间和空间变化上都可分为二组,显著性指标的时空差异较明显,水质污染程度从南至北逐渐减弱,湖溪河是喻家湖的最主要污染源.并对水质参数,监测点位和频次进行了优化.     

Hunting Effects on Favourable Conservation Status of Highly Inbred Swedish Wolves

The wolf (Canis lupus) is classified as endangered in Sweden by the Swedish Species Information Centre, which is the official authority for threat classification. The present population, which was founded in the early 1980s, descends from 5 individuals. It is isolated and highly inbred, and on average individuals are more related than siblings. Hunts have been used by Swedish authorities during 2010 and 2011 to reduce the population size to its upper tolerable level of 210 wolves. European Union (EU) biodiversity legislation requires all member states to promote a concept called “favourable conservation status” (FCS) for a series of species including the wolf. Swedish national policy stipulates maintenance of viable populations with sufficient levels of genetic variation of all naturally occurring species. Hunting to reduce wolf numbers in Sweden is currently not in line with national and EU policy agreements and will make genetically based FCS criteria less achievable for this species. We suggest that to reach FCS for the wolf in Sweden the following criteria need to be met: (1) a well‐connected, large, subdivided wolf population over Scandinavia, Finland, and the Russian Karelia‐Kola region should be reestablished, (2) genetically effective size (N_e) of this population is in the minimum range of N_e = 500–1000, (3) Sweden harbors a part of this total population that substantially contributes to the total N_e and that is large enough to not be classified as threatened genetically or according to IUCN criteria, and (4) average inbreeding levels in the Swedish population are <0.1. Efectos de la Cacería sobre el Estatus de Conservación Favorable de Lobos Suecos con Endogamia Alta     

地震人员伤亡快速评估模型研究

每年地震都会给社会造成巨大人员伤亡,如果震后能迅速预知地震人员伤亡数量,这对挽救生命损失是十分有意义的。统计了近10年来中国大陆数10次强震、中强震灾害损失,根据影响伤亡的主要因素,用线性回归分析法,建立地震人员伤亡快速评估模型,并对模型进行验证,使之可用于地震预警。     

Unpacking the objectives and assumptions underpinning European aquaculture

Increasing demand for seafood and the lack of growth of capture fisheries have boosted aquaculture growth worldwide. However, European aquaculture has been stagnating over the past decade, and European public authorities have been developing policies and strategies in efforts to reverse this. Aquaculture discourses in the European Union, based on 34 policy, planning, and strategy documents, are examined and a discourse analysis conducted following Bacchi’s WPR (What is the Problem Represented to be?) approach. How the problems in these discourses are represented, the tensions among main objectives, and the implicit assumptions are unveiled, and discussed employing a Polanyian theoretical framework. Taking these assumptions for granted leads to a disembedded understanding of aquaculture, and facilitates the privatization of aquatic space and resources. The analysis contributes to the literature establishing the link between the expansion of aquaculture and the enclosure of aquatic resources and enriches environmental and political debates on European aquaculture.     

Appraisal of measurement methods, chemical composition and sources of fine atmospheric particles over six different areas of Northern Belgium

Daily and seasonal variation in the total elemental, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) content and mass of PM_2.5 were studied at industrial, urban, suburban and agricultural/rural areas. Continuous (optical Dustscan, standard tapered element oscillating micro-balance (TEOM), TEOM with filter dynamics measurement system), semi-continuous (Partisol filter-sampling) and non-continuous (Dekati-impactor sampling and gravimetry) methods of PM_2.5 mass monitoring were critically evaluated. The average elemental fraction accounted for 2-6% of the PM_2.5 mass measured by gravimetry. Metals, like K, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn and Pb were strongly inter-correlated, also frequently with non-metallic elements (P, S, Cl and/or Br) and EC/OC. A high OC/EC ratio (2-9) was generally observed. The total carbon content of PM_2.5 ranged between 3 and 77% (averages: 12-32%), peaking near industrial/heavy trafficked sites. Principal component analysis identified heavy oil burning, ferrous/non-ferrous industry and vehicular emissions as the main sources of metal pollution.